"He's going to put up astronomical numbers" - Tim Bontemps is certain Giannis Antetokounmpo can be the MVP favorite under one criterion (2025)

It seems pretty strange when one looks at how narratives play out in the NBA. On one hand, Jaylen Brown finds himself without a superstar running mate, and suddenly, no one expects him or the Boston Celtics to make any real noise in the upcoming 2025-26 season.

On the other hand, when Giannis Antetokounmpo finds himself without an All-NBA-caliber player for the first time in his career, the media isn't lowering their expectations; rather, the buzz is about how the two-time MVP can add another award if he drags his Milwaukee Bucks to success. NBA analyst Tim Bontemps is the latest to add to that talk, stating how Giannis can be a sure-shot MVP if he checks one big box.

Bontemps on what Giannis needs to do to win the 2026 MVP

The Nikola Jokic situation proved one thing last year: numbers don't alone decide the winner anymore. Given how The Joker registered his career best figures across multiple fronts yet lost the award to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it became certain that team success had a huge role to play. That means that for Giannis to get back in the MVP race, he needs to lead the Bucks to success in the East.

For Bontemps, that boils down to availability. Speaking on the "Hoop Collective" show, Tim urged that if Giannis features in at least 75 games (something which he hasn't done in the past seven seasons), the Bucks will have all the necessary help to make headlines in the East as the ultimate underdog. Moreover, Tim feels that if Giannis misses games, Milwaukee would have plenty of issues staying afloat.

"If Giannis can play 75-plus games, which he obviously has not done in a long time, he's got a chance to win MVP, because he's going to put up astronomical numbers, and if he does that, they could finish third or fourth, they could win a lot of games, and he would get a lot of credit for that. Sort of like the Russell Westbrook MVP season," the analyst said. "It's not exactly the same, but it's got some parallels to it."

What does Giannis need to do to be in consideration for the 2026 MVP award?

This exactly seems to be the tricky part in the modern-day MVP conversations: what matters more? Let's say the Bucks finish second or third in the East, and Giannis averages a tad under 30 points per game, like he has done the past three years. Does that leadership and impact still carry weight? Or would it take Giannis putting up career-best stats just to push Milwaukee into a direct playoff spot for the narrative to really tilt in his favor? Clearly, it seems like the narrative changes based on how the media views it at that time.

That being said, it is certain that Giannis' availability is non-negotiable. Whether for his personal case for the award or for the Bucks' collective chances, the Greek Freak needs to be out on the floor as much as possible, because if the Bucks fail to make huge noise in the East, Giannis might not be a frontrunner in the 2026 MVP race at all.